Tamiflu: Guarding Against H5-N1 Avian Flu Pandemic
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been warning that an epidemic of bird flu (or avian flu) could very well sweep the globe in the near future. Alarmist reports have also begun to surface in major news media, such as the recent sobering report about the United States' poor preparedness on ABC's PrimeTime.
At a recent United Nations Summit in New York, President Bush warned, "We must also remain on the offensive against new threats to public health, such as the avian influenza. If left unchallenged, the virus could become the first pandemic of the 21st century."
The avain flu virus may be deadly to about 55-75% of its victims, and a pandemic could cause 1.5 to 2 million initial deaths in the United States, and a billion deaths worldwide. According to government officials, the United States is far from prepared for such a disaster: Massive quarantines would be required, corpses would have to be disposed of en masse, the economy may come to a grinding halt as workers opt to stay home instead of circulate in crowded areas.
While there is currently no vaccine for the virus, there is one pill that may be effective against the bird flue, also known as H5N1, and that is a product called Tamiflu from the pharmaceutical company Roche Holdings. Tamiflu, also known as Oseltamivir, is in high demand, and there is not nearly enough to go around. See the FDA consumer information about Tamiflu for more information about the drug, including side effects and warnings.
(Update: There is also an inhaled drug called Relenza from Glaxo SmithKline that may be effective as well.)
The United States is currently working on building stockpiles, but officials admit that they currently only have about 2.5 million doses. Minimum needs, they note, would be at least 20 million. Many other countries throughout the world are also trying to build stockpiles of the drug.
The virus has killed several dozen people throughout Asia, and while those cases seem to have been passed on by birds, there has been at least one case that seems to have passed from human to human. Once the virus mutates to that level, the consequences could be dire, warn experts.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) have awarded contracts for the research of a vaccine for bird flu to Aventis Pasteur Inc. of Swiftwater, PA, and to Chiron Corporation of Emeryville, CA. Both companies already manufacture inactivated influenza virus vaccines that are licensed for use during annual influenza seasons.
In Indonesia, the government is currently bracing for more deaths, as Reuters reports that several cases of avian flu infections in humans have been reported in Indonesia over the past several days. The concern among experts is that, when the virus begins to spread from human to human, it could quickly spread out of Asia and throughout the world.
Australia's Chief Medical officer, Professor John Horvath, has indicated that there is little evidence that the recent cases of avian flu in Indonesia signal the start of a pandemic. "Of greatest importance is the question of whether these recent events in Indonesia signal the start of an influenza pandemic. I am advised that currently there is no evidence that this has happened," he said.
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